Brett's 2013 NHL Conference Finals Predictions

Well, it's time for a new round of predictions for the NHL playoffs. I was 4/4 in the second round, bringing my total to nine correct out of the 12 series so far.

Now to the interesting part. The previous four Stanley Cup winners will meet each other to determine who reaches the Stanley Cup Final. The 2009 and 2011 champions meet in the East, with the 2010 and 2012 champs meeting in the west. Which two recent champions will meet for another chance to raise the Cup? It's prediction time!

Eastern Conference Final
(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (4) Boston Bruins

Image from Yahoo! Sports

Heading into the playoffs, this was probably the most expected outcome for the Eastern Conference. Both teams made moves mid-season to bolster their team for a long run in the playoffs. After both teams only took five games to dispose of their semi-final foes, they played the waiting game while the dust settled in the Western Conference.

For Pittsburgh, things seemed to click once they put Tomas Vokoun between the pipes. Since he has taken over the starting job, the team has allowed 2 goals per game. Contrast to an offence that is hitting its stride with the Sidney Crosby rounding into form, the Penguins will be a tough out.

As for Boston, they have been a tale of two teams to this point in the playoffs. They looked extremely vulnerable in the first round, almost dropping the series despite leading 3-1. However, the second round resembled the Bruins team most people expected to see all along.

So, let's figure this series out. The emotions will be interesting, with both Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow picking the Penguins over the Bruins. It will also be a return for Jaromir Jagr, playing a playoff series against his former team. Last year, the Penguins showed their frustration in a series against the Flyers and I expect the Bruins to play in a similar fashion. Led by super-pest Brad Marchand, the Bruins have a roster that will get under the skin of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and the other stars in the line-up. While both teams have a lot of experience, I believe it will be the Penguins who pull out the series in again. The added leadership of Morrow and Iginla will be a calming influence on the team. Plus, they have the ability to put out three lines that score effectively. They were never in danger of that with the Rangers. It will be a long, hard-fought series, but Pittsburgh wins it in the end.
Pittsburgh wins the series in 4-3.
Western Conference Final
(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (5) Los Angeles Kings

Image from Fox Sports West

Back in January on my Sports Journalism radio show, I said the Kings would have a very strong chance to repeat as champions. They have a young, physical core and an extremely talented goalie. One of my classmates said a team to watch out for would be the Blackhawks, looking to rebound after a first round exit in the 2012 NHL Playoffs. Almost half a year later, it looks like we were both right.

The Blackhawks survived the Detroit Red Wings, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. It was a tight series between two divisional foes, pushing Chicago to the brink multiple times.

The Kings were also tested during the second round, facing an elimination game for the first time during these last two playoffs. They responded with a true Game 7 performance, aided by Jonathan Quick.

The series will come down to whether the Kings can keep up with the high-octane offense of the Blackhawks. Chicago has shown flashes of what they are capable of during the playoffs, but nothing consistent. Los Angeles has been able to dominate teams with their defence, bolstered by the strong play of Quick in net. He will be able to keep Los Angeles in every game of the series, but will he get enough goal support? In the long run, I don't think that will matter. I'm sticking with my pick from January. Los Angeles will be able to frustrate Jonathan Toews and the rest of the Blackhawks during the series. They will have a hard time scoring, and Quick will be able to erase any mistake the Kings make in their own zone. Plus, the Kings haven't lost a game at home during this year's playoff. I see that trend continuing.  Los Angeles will have a chance to defend their title in the Finals, marking the first time a team has reached back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals since the Red Wings and Penguins both did it in 2008 and 2009.Los Angeles wins the series in 4-2.

So, those are my picks. I'm sticking with the team that I picked back in January. Do you agree or disagree? Sound off in the comment section below.

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Brett's 2013 NHL Playoff Conference Semifinals Predictions

Alright, so the first round didn't go as well as my NBA predictions. At the end of the day, I got five of the eight series correct. Not that bad, considering lost Game 7. Then again, I couldn't have been more wrong with the Ottawa and San Jose wins.

Now, I'm writing this with a heavy heart after my Toronto Maple Leafs blew Game 7 last night. It'll take some time to recover, but I've accepted the fact now. It was a much better result than I had anticipated going into the series.

Anyways, let's get on to the teams that are still actually playing hockey at this point. Conference Semifinals time!

Eastern Conference
(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators
The media is going to have a field day with this series. Having Matt Cooke play against the Ottawa Senators mere months after slicing Erik Karlsson's Achilles. While that will give people something to talk about, the action on the ice could be even better. Pittsburgh won all three games played in the regular season, but they were all close games. The first round series exposed a problem for the Penguins in net. Marc-Andre Fleury started to play like did in last year's defeat against the Philadelphia Flyers, so much so that Tomas Vokoun has taken over the starting goalie spot - at least for Game 1. On the opposite side of the ice, Craig Anderson was brilliant against Montreal. He has been one of the league's most consistent goaltenders. How much can a hot goalie mean to a playoff series? Jaroslav Halak stole a series from the Penguins two years ago. Will it happen again this year? I don't think so. Crosby and Malkin are playing exceptionally, the Penguins have more depth, and Vokoun just has to be steady. The Pesky Sens have had a fine season, but it ends here.
Pittsburgh wins the series 4-2.

(4) Boston Bruins vs. (6) New York Rangers
This series hurts a little, knowing how close the Leafs were to being in this spot. Anyways, during that series, the Bruins showed two teams: one which was physical, fast, and intimidating and another that was slow, old, and had problems scoring. Boston will need production from all lines. At the end of the first round series, Patrice Bergeron and his line showed some life. Moving Jagr up to join Bergeron and Brad Marchand added a needed offensive spark to the team, giving them a second offensive threat. They'll need every bit of it to beat the Rangers and Vezina-nominated Henrik Lundqvist. It's hard to overestimate his worth to the Rangers in the first round, considering there were four games New York scored a goal or less. In order to beat Boston, the Rangers will need a much better effort from their offense. They showed some offensive spark in Game 7, shutting out Washington 5-0. No matter how good Lundqvist plays, it's hard to see the Rangers scoring enough goals on Tuukka Rask and the Bruins defense. It'll be a close, low-scoring series, but Boston takes it.
Boston wins the series 4-3.

Western Conference
(1) Chicago Blackhawks vs. (7) Detroit Red Wings
Even though Chicago made quick work of the Minnesota Wild, two of the five games went in to overtime. The series could've been drastically different. Do I think the Blackhawks still would've won the series? Yes, they have far too much talent. Detroit presents an interesting challenge. The long-time top dog in the Central Division, the Red Wings only won one game in regulation during the first round. They showed some dominance over the Ducks last round, but allowed Anaheim to get back into games too often. Chicago will be able to take advantage of that as well, making it hard on the Red Wings to get any form of separation. During the season, Chicago won all four match-ups against Detroit, but three were in the shootout. Again, another indication of a close series, which I think it will be. Eventually Chicago takes the series and top dog spot in the Central, but Detroit will give them everything they've got.
Chicago wins the series 4-2.

(5) Los Angeles Kings vs. (6) San Jose Sharks
Another Western Conference series, another divisional match-up. The Kings showed what won them the Stanley Cup against the Blues in the first round: a combination of great defense and outstanding goaltending. Combined with timely scoring, it makes for a very successful playoff recipe. Jonathan Quick kept the defending champs in the series early, making huge saves. He stepped up his game from the regular season where some people were questioning the contract the Kings gave him. The Sharks are coming off of a great series against the Canucks, taking complete advantage of a team that was unable to score goals. It was a problem for L.A. in the first round, only scoring 12 times in six games against the Blues. San Jose has a Vezina-nominated goalie in Antti Niemi, which will make scoring a big issue for the Kings again. While it sounds obvious, the goalies will decide the series. I think Quick outplays Niemi, and the Kings return to the Western Conference Finals. The series goes seven games since San Jose doesn't seem to lose at home.
Los Angeles wins the series 4-3.

Well, there are my picks for the semifinals. I hope that I have a better percentage than the first round. If not, there's always another round.

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Why John Tavares Should Win the NHL's Hart Trophy

The NHL released the nominees for the Hart Memorial Trophy, given each season to the "player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team", this past Friday. Penguins captain Sidney Crosby and Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin - two former winners of the award - were both nominated this year. The third player? Fourth year forward and New York Islanders alternate captain John Tavares. While the easy choice is to give the award to Crosby or Ovechkin, the right choice is Tavares.

John Tavares (Photo from lastwordonsports.com)

It's very easy to make a case for either Crosby or Ovechkin, and both are deserving candidates. When Crosby had his jaw broken by a Brooks Orpik slapshot at the end of March, he led the league with 56 points. After missing the rest of the season, he still finished tied for third in the league. While those were impressive numbers, it helped negate his campaign for the Hart. With Crosby out of the lineup for April, the Penguins won eight of their final 12 games. His absence showed the depth Pittsburgh has in their organization. So, while he is arguably the best player in the world and valuable to his team, he isn't the MOST valuable.

A similar case can be made for Ovechkin, except he has a stronger claim for the Hart. Washington was floundering during the first half of the lockout-shortened season. The same could be said for Ovechkin, who many thought he wasn't the same player that won two previous Hart trophies. Then, he caught fire and quickly closed the gap in the race for the Maurice Richard Trophy, awarded to the player with the most goals in the league. As he closed that gap, the Capitals closed the gap on the Winnipeg Jets for the division crown. Both eventually overtaking the leader, with Ovechkin leading the league in goals (32 - the only player in the league to reach 30 goals) and the Capitals winning the Southeast Division title.

So, if I make a case like that for Ovechkin, how can I say that Tavares deserves the Hart?

To start, most  preseason predictions found the Islanders in the bottom third of the NHL. There were questions whether they could compete with the rest of the powers in the Atlantic Division. John Tavares made the team relevant this season, leading to their first playoff appearance in six years.

In terms of numbers, the Mississauga-native put some up. Tavares lit the lamp 28 times this season. During his three 82 game seasons, he scored 24, 29, and 31 respectively. While he only had 19 assists this year, he made his line mates better. He assisted on 8 of Matt Moulson's 15 goals. That's not counting all of the goals that Tavares scored assisted by Moulson or other winger Brad Boyes. Taking his offense off of the Islanders would mean they miss the playoffs. Not taking away anything from Moulson or Boyes, but they wouldn't have come close to their numbers without Tavares either setting them up for finishing off their pass.

Now, you might make a similar argument about Ovechkin. But, he has legitimate help on the team. With  Mike Riberio, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green to name a few, the Capitals can still make the playoffs with the roster they have. The Islanders would be in the bottom five without Tavares.

So, when the 2013 NHL Awards take place, John Tavares deserves the Hart Trophy. Whether he wins it or not, that's another matter all together.

2013 NBA Playoffs - Conference Semis

We are now into the second round of the NBA Playoffs. And since I did pretty well with predictions for the opening round, I decided to do it again.

In the Conference Quarterfinals, I picked seven of the eight winners, three of which were in the right amount of games (Miami, Indiana, Chicago). So, Stephen Curry led the Warriors to the Round of 8, the Clippers imploded in Game 6, and Westbrook is riding the bench with an injury. Let's jump back into some predictions.

Photo credit: The Bleacher Report

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
The Thunder certainly survived a scare from the feisty Houston Rockets. How much can be credited to the loss of Russell Westbrook? Well, he certainly takes a lot of pressure off Durant offensively. With Westbrook in the line-up, it makes it so much harder for the defense to be able to double team Durant. Now, the Grizzlies were able to dismantle the Clippers with the physical combination of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Lob City just didn't have anything to match up with the two powerhouses down low, especially with Blake Griffin being hampered by an ankle injury. It'll be an interesting match up down low, since the Thunder can counter Z-Bo and Gasol with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka. One major concern for the Grizzlies is where the offense will come from if OKC can shut down their frontcourt? This is a really close match up for me. When it comes to that, it's hard to go against the best player in the series: Kevin "Iceberg Slim" Durant. (I take no credit for that nickname. That's all Jalen Rose.)
Oklahoma City wins the series in 7.

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
Now this is a surprise, especially for me. I had the Nuggets being all over the Warriors in the previous series. When David Lee left, I thought it was wrapped up. Well, Stephen Curry came to Golden State's rescue, carrying them to the Western Conference Semifinals. Their reward for taking down the Nuggets? A date with the well-rested San Antonio Spurs. It will be interesting to see how the Warriors will be able to respond to Duncan's presence. One of history's best power forwards, Duncan averaged just 32 minutes a game against the Lakers. So, a healthy and energized Duncan, healthy Parker, healthy Ginobli, and a bench that will do anything to win? I think that'll be too much for Golden State to overcome, especially without Lee - who averaged 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in the regular season. Curry made the league take notice, and will probably steal a game or two based on his ability to get his shot off. However, experience wins out in this one.
San Antonio wins the series in 6.

Eastern Conference

(1) Miami Heat vs. (5) Chicago Bulls
There is a whole lot of interesting storylines that come out of this series. LeBron James was just named the NBA MVP, giving him his fourth in five seasons. Earlier in the season, the Bulls ended the Heat's 27-game winning streak. In that game, James complained about overly-aggressive and violent fouls. Oh, and there are all the rumours of Derrick Rose somehow coming back in this series to challenge the NBA's defending champ. The Bulls are still fighting injuries - who knows how healthy Joakim Noah is at this point. The teams split the season series, with each winning in their opponent's gym. Plus, Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has seemingly found a defense that works against this Heat team. All that being said, the Heat still have the three best players in the series. The Bulls will put up a fight, but the Heat will make it to their third straight Eastern Conference Finals.
Miami wins the series in 6.

(2) New York Knicks vs. (3) Indiana Pacers
Was the Celtics offense that bad, or were the Knicks that good? I found myself asking that question as I watched some horrendous basketball during that opening series. There were times the Knicks looked like they could challenge the Heat for the Eastern Conference title. There were other times it looked like both the Knicks and the Celtics forgot how to play basketball. The Knicks' key to the series isn't Carmelo Anthony since everyone knows he'll get his points. It'll come down to the play of J.R. Smith. When he is concentrating on basketball and not all of the after the whistle action, the Knicks should be fine. The Pacers won't be an easy out though. They have tough team defense, anchored by Roy Hibbert down the middle. For the Pacers to win, they'll need at least four strong games from Paul George. He might have to go shot for shot with Anthony, for example. If that's the case, the Pacers are in trouble. Again, it's hard to go against the best player in the series. Especially when this best player led the league in scoring.
New York wins the series in 6.

Well, there you have it. I'll be back with some predictions for the Conference Finals. Enjoy the playoff basketball. Hopefully this round will be much more exciting than the first. With these match-ups in place, that shouldn't be a problem.

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